Almost $5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on November 14, 2025, at 8:00 UTC on Deribit. These options expiry could shake the prices of BTC and ETH, potentially moving them toward their respective strike prices as expiration approaches. Today’s expiry is slightly lower than last week’s $5.4 billion, but the stakes are higher today as the market shows weakness. Therefore, traders and investors should closely watch max pain levels and positioning, both of which could impact short-term price action.
Meanwhile, the Put-to-Call ratio (PCR) is 0.63, indicating that there are fewer put options being traded than call options. This inclination suggests a bullish or optimistic market sentiment, as traders are placing more substantial bets on the market to rise. As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $99,092, down by almost 3% in the last 24 hours. Therefore, the bullish bets align with the maximum pain theory, which states that prices tend to move towards their maximum pain (strike price) levels due to the influence of smart money. A closer look at the chart reveals active hedging, rather than panic, with open interest concentrated near the $95,000 and $100,000 puts (yellow vertical bar) and the $108,000 and $111,000 calls (blue vertical bars), making these key battlegrounds as expiration nears.
Bullish Sentiment Seen in Ethereum Positioning Ethereum options maintain a defensive stance, trading near $3,224 as of this writing, with max pain close to $3,500. Ethereum options’ notional value sits above $730 million. The put/call ratio is 0.64, slightly higher than that of BTC, suggesting strong bullish sentiment in the market. This indicates that traders are purchasing significantly more call options than put options, anticipating future price increases.
Indeed, the chart above shows call options at 142,333, against only 90,515 put options, translating to a 1.5x+ difference. The total open interest is 232,852. Meanwhile, today’s options expiration comes amid broader market chaos that goes beyond Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000. Analysts at Greeks.live highlight catalysts such as the recently resolved US government shutdown.
However, they highlight the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting as the most pivotal event, amid rising uncertainty in macroeconomic data, geopolitical tensions, and the AI boom.
Take on the Bitcoin Maxi Challenge! Trade BTC with extra simulated capital and reduced risk. Get 20% off all challenges today! Start trading The analysts also note that both open interest (OI) and trading volume continue to rise in the options market, with a notable increase in out-of-the-money option trades. This indicates growing divergence among market participants regarding future outcomes, reflected in slight increases across major implied volatility (IV) maturities.
Taking all these factors together, they collectively signal heightened market uncertainty about near-term price movements. Thus, a plausible “reason” emerges as a trigger for a market reversal. Traders should therefore brace for volatility as these options near expiration, but understand that stability comes later, as the markets adjust to the new trading environment.